Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 10.472507 12.301162 14.310844 16.677392 19.381641 22.368908 25.911957
2024-12-22 7.678639 10.037781 12.873694 16.509352 21.019419 26.401277 33.277374
2024-12-29 5.957470 8.533772 11.874197 16.468176 22.558671 30.285399 40.746662
2025-01-05 4.586236 7.137345 10.677071 15.855333 23.126305 32.843613 46.654945
2025-01-12 3.770617 6.315632 10.063231 15.845964 24.372158 36.275570 53.889084
2025-01-19 3.147827 5.644405 9.526953 15.814342 25.498089 39.548797 61.083984
2025-01-26 2.850528 5.422124 9.613164 16.683738 27.979268 44.900902 71.597139
2025-02-02 2.568341 5.168283 9.597512 17.361652 30.192273 49.985688 82.045746
2025-02-09 2.347023 4.978683 9.650439 18.133363 32.590998 55.493452 93.476526
2025-02-16 2.039480 4.572767 9.267137 18.106715 33.654996 58.956460 101.929801
2025-02-23 1.711052 4.064876 8.624932 17.537540 33.724449 60.788298 107.863727
2025-03-02 1.422525 3.582932 7.958892 16.833574 33.466736 62.020544 112.847225
2025-03-09 1.255623 3.337402 7.728993 16.937702 34.690116 65.888899 122.567900
2025-03-16 1.096342 3.078651 7.436111 16.884436 35.616595 69.309396 131.758090
2025-03-23 0.963841 2.856465 7.186720 16.884053 36.632048 72.942588 141.528751
2025-03-30 0.805762 2.535854 6.673271 16.271885 36.395673 74.285685 147.321870
2025-04-06 0.711085 2.360131 6.459795 16.267374 37.351386 77.864470 157.318331
2025-04-13 0.627390 2.195787 6.247546 16.236810 38.242023 81.364985 167.356781
2025-04-20 0.602430 2.196061 6.435216 17.127209 41.116466 88.823786 185.143622
2025-04-27 0.568752 2.163111 6.534513 17.821158 43.623858 95.711027 202.203569
2025-05-04 0.541618 2.145019 6.669219 18.610853 46.394827 103.269962 220.918366
2025-05-11 0.482647 2.010078 6.475211 18.583620 47.364798 107.286511 232.998461
2025-05-18 0.410521 1.811669 6.076576 18.001262 47.036012 108.640626 239.931023